2004 Ford GT$522Kest $590K▲ 13.1%2001 Lamborghini Murciélago 6.2 (early)$373Kest $406K▲ 18.5%2019 McLaren 720S Spider$263Kest $244K▼ 3.4%2005 Ferrari F430 Spider$191Kest $218K▲ 32.1%2013 Aston Martin Vanquish Volante$173Kest $168K▼ 6.3%2006 Porsche 997.1 Turbo$118Kest $122K▲ 14.6%2017 Ford GT$892Kest $940K▲ 1.4%2022 Porsche 992.1 GT3 Touring$276Kest $287K▼ 1.3%2023 Aston Martin Vantage V12$262Kest $258K▼ 7.3%2003 Lamborghini Gallardo 5.0$118Kest $123K▲ 12.4%2012 McLaren MP4-12C Spider$109Kest $110K▲ 18.8%2000 Ferrari 360 Spider$98Kest $104K▲ 6.3%2006 Ford GT Heritage Edition$768Kest $800K▲ 4.3%1995 Porsche 993 Turbo$263Kest $297K▲ 20.1%1965 Aston Martin DB6 Vantage$215Kest $220K▲ 14.3%1984 Ferrari Testarossa$175Kest $211K▲ 23.2%2006 Lamborghini Gallardo Spyder 5.0$156Kest $147K▲ 51.2%2011 McLaren MP4-12C Coupe$95Kest $98K▲ 17.5%2020 Porsche 992.1 Turbo S$239Kest $256K▲ 1.7%1953 Aston Martin DB2/4 Drophead Coupe$179Kest $188K▼ 38.6%2014 McLaren 650S Spider$132Kest $137K▲ 13.9%1999 Ferrari 360 Modena$108Kest $124K▲ 12.5%1996 Ferrari 550 Maranello$228Kest $242K▲ 39.7%2017 McLaren 720S Coupe$228Kest $196K▲ 14.4%1997 Porsche 993 Carrera S$190Kest $191K▲ 9.8%2019 McLaren GT Coupe$152Kest $144K▼ 10.2%1985 Ferrari 328 GTS$122Kest $125K▲ 26.2%1989 Porsche 964 Carrera 4$96Kest $112K▲ 9.2%2011 Ferrari 458 Spider$265Kest $352K▲ 8.9%1990 Porsche 964 Carrera 2$120Kest $131K▲ 9.1%

The Shifty Outlook 2027

37 collector cars to buy, keep or avoid in 2027

A fair price for every one of them, a twelve month target range, and the sales we used to get there. Built on 78,374 auction and dealer results, and on 1,247 cars we have watched trade more than once. We grade every call in next year’s edition.

Read the whole thing

The full report opens the moment you enter an address. No account, no card, and a copy lands in your inbox.

Calls

37

18 Buys, 17 Keeps, 2 Avoids

Long holds

8

Five to ten year cases, by email

Sales read

78K

Real results, not asking prices

Price

Free

Your email, nothing else

Three things the data says that the market does not

Each of these comes out of the same place: we know which physical car sold, by its chassis number, so we can watch the same car trade twice. A price index cannot do that, because an index has no chassis.

53%

of the cars we watched sell twice sold for less the second time

664 of 1,247 chassis with two completed sales on file, 180 days or more apart. The median car was held 1 year 8 months and came back 2.2 percent lighter. This is what a price index cannot show you, because an index has no chassis.

3 years

is where the losses stop

Held under two years, the median car lost 2.9 percent and 55 percent of them lost money. Held three years or more, the median car made 8.6 percent and the share that lost money fell to 39 percent. The flip, not the car, is what loses.

189

seven figure sales in 2026, against 101 a year ago

Through 20 September, on our own records. The number of cars sold over the same stretch grew about a tenth, so a base that grew 10 percent carried a seven figure count that grew 87 percent. The top of the market and the middle are not moving together.

Three of the 37, in full

Every call carries a fair price today, a twelve month target range, three reasons, and the one thing that would change our mind. Here are three of them, whole. The other 34 are in the report.

Buy

1989 Ferrari 348 ts

Forty sales, a gated manual in every one, and a forecast above today

Fair price today
$94,900
12 month target
$88,276 to $112,433
Sold, last 24 months
40 sold, 1 for sale
  • Forty sales in two years. The 348 was only ever built with a gated manual gearbox.
  • Our fair price is $94,900. The twelve month median is $85,500. The forecast runs $88,300 to $112,400.
  • Seven cars we watched sell twice returned a median 4.6 percent a year. One car is for sale today.

What changes it. Becomes a Keep if the twelve month median passes $112,400, the top of our range.

Keep

1995 Ferrari F50

Two August records, and we would not chase either

Fair price today
$8,852,000
12 month target
$8,199,152 to $9,908,285
Sold, last 24 months
7 sold, 0 for sale
  • Two cars sold at Monterey in August for $12,105,000 and $14,575,000. In January two sold for $7,598,750 and $8,805,000.
  • Our fair price is $8,852,000. The forecast runs $8,199,000 to $9,908,000, and the August prices sit above all of it.
  • Three hundred and forty nine built. The one F50 we watched sell twice returned 27.3 percent a year.

What changes it. Becomes a Buy if the next sale lands inside our range.

Avoid

2018 Ferrari 812 Superfast

Up 58 percent in a year, while Ferrari still sells a new V12 without a turbo or a battery

Fair price today
$444,600
12 month target
$362,559 to $432,926
Sold, last 24 months
23 sold, 91 for sale
  • Up 58.1 percent over twelve months. It sold for $413,000 in May and for $546,000 to $632,500 in August.
  • Ninety one are for sale against twenty three sold in two years. That is four listings for every sale.
  • The forecast runs $362,600 to $432,900, under our fair price of $444,600. Ferrari still sells a naturally aspirated V12 with no hybrid system, the 12Cilindri.

What changes it. Becomes a Keep if the ninety one for sale fall under twenty five.

What else is in it

Part I

The market in 2026

The year in ten numbers, the big picture, and what colour, options and miles were actually worth.

Part II

The auction year, event by event

January through the fall, every major sale, with the sources named beside each figure.

Part III

The 37 calls

A fair price today and three reasons for each, a twelve month range wherever our model can make one, and twelve desk calls marked as the desk's own. Every call states what would change our mind.

Part IV

The long holds

Eight cars for five to ten years. The list and the numbers are in the report; the full case for each arrives by email, one car at a time.

How the 37 were chosen

We started with 841 collector models that clear a price floor and carry enough sold results to price honestly. 518 of them were gated out: too few sales, a bucket so wide that one fair price would be fiction, or a nameplate our own records cannot separate cleanly. That left 323 cars, and the rules made 25 calls out of those. The desk added 12 Buys of its own, each marked as a desk call with our model's view printed beside it.

Each one is scored on the same seven measures: what the forecast says, how confident it is, how many cars are for sale against how many have sold, where recent hammer prices sit against our own estimate, what the same chassis returned when it sold twice, the twelve month move, and the gap between dealer asking and the last print. Then the desk writes the reasons, and where it disagrees with the score it says so in the report.

A Buy needs high forecast confidence. A Keep or an Avoid may run on medium. Every Avoid speaks about a model, a specification and a price gap. Never about a seller, and never about a specific car for sale.

The list leans Ferrari. That is not taste, it is evidence: Ferrari has by far the deepest sales record of any marque we track, so Ferraris are the cars with enough history to clear the confidence bar. The report says so on its method page too.

What it is built on

Sold results on file
78,374
Sold in the last 12 months
22,716
Models priced
1,951
Models with a live forecast
1,546
Forecast error in backtest
18.8%
Chassis watched trading twice
1,247

Forecast error is the median absolute error when the model is tested against sales it never saw. Figures as of 2026-09-24, prices in USD.

For writers and editors

Every finding on this page is free to quote, and every chart in the report is free to reuse, with credit to The Shifty Market Desk and a link to this page. If you want the underlying figures for a story, write to us: the method section names every source behind every number, and says plainly where our own records are thin.

  • 53%

    of the cars we watched sell twice sold for less the second time

  • 3 years

    is where the losses stop

  • 189

    seven figure sales in 2026, against 101 a year ago

Press and data requests: info@driveshifty.com

The Shifty Outlook 2027

37 calls, 8 long holds, one email

The report opens the moment you enter an address, and the long hold cases follow one car at a time.

The Shifty Market Desk · Market research, not financial advice. Prices in USD, figures as of 2026-09-24. A forecast is a range, and a range is a judgement about a market that can move against it.